OPINION: Like it or not, French voters made Le Pen the ‘referee’ over any new PM

When it comes to France finding a new prime minister, far-right leader Marine Le Pen seems to have become the key player in deciding who it will be, but it’s French voters and not President Emmanuel Macron who are responsible for that, writes John Lichfield.

Three other candidates seemed destined to move into the Hotel Matignon in the last few days.
They were Bernard Cazeneuve, the ex- Socialist PM; Xavier Bertrand, centre-right President of the northern French region, Hauts-de-France; and Thierry Baudet, centre-left president of the Economic and Social Committee, a powerless third chamber of the French parliament which is usually allowed to sleep undisturbed.
All had their 15 minutes of fame. All were finally rejected by President Emmanuel Macron when it became clear that they would be rapidly removed from office by a censure motion in the new National Assembly elected almost two months ago.
In all three cases, the final thumbs down came after Macron consulted Marine Le Pen.
Pity poor Emmanuel Macron. No one else much does, so I will. The crisis is partly of his making. But the insoluble arithmetic of the new National Assembly is of The People’s making.
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There are three and a half ideological blocs. No party, group or block has anything approaching a majority.
The Centre, Right and Far Right say that they will censure the obscure PM, Lucie Castets, proposed by the Left. The Left will censure any PM from the Right or Centre, even one from the centre-left. The Far Right will de facto combine with the Left to censure all comers from the Centre, Centre-left and Centre-Right.
READ ALSO: Macron is not staging a coup, nor is he ‘stealing’ the French elections
And the French media mocks Macron for “failing to make up his mind”…
Le Monde says that Macron has ‘made Marine Le Pen the referee’ of who should be the next PM. France’s once reliable newspaper of record says that Macron believes “that the opinion of the Far Right leader counts double”.
What nonsense.
Like it or not, French voters have made Le Pen and her parliamentary troops (142 seats out of 577) the swing votes in the new assembly. Macron has no choice but to consult her – as he has consulted all other parties.
It may seem odd that Le Pen is in such a powerful position two months after the Far Right was defeated on July 7th. It is odd – and dangerous.
Le Pen originally said that her deputies would not necessarily censure any new PM. She has changed her mind, making the difficult numbers of the new assembly impossible.
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Le Pen’s camp lost in July because the Left and Centre combined to vote against them. Logic might suggest that the Left and Centre, having ‘won’ the election, should agree on a compromise government.
That is Belgian or German political logic. It does not extend to France.
The Left claims it has the right to govern alone because it won a few more seats than any other bloc (but only one in three of seats overall).
Macron’s centre and the centre-right refuse to govern with a left alliance dominated by the radical, anti-European, pro-Russian and pro-Hamas La France Insoumise.
The Left alliance this week refused Macron’s suggestion that the last Socialist PM, Bernard Cazeneuve, should return at the head of a left-centre coalition. They said that would just be an extension of Macronism.
Cazeneuve, it turns out, was not so Macronist as all that. He wanted to reopen Macron’s pension reform and maybe shift the standard pension age back to 62 (from 64). That was not enough to win him the support of the four party Left alliance and not even of the Parti Socialiste, to whom he used to belong. It also cooled Macron’s interest in his former friend and colleague.
The other possibilities tested by Macron – Bertrand and Beaudet (rapidly nick-named “Mr Nobeaudet”) – failed because they were rejected by both the Left and then the Far Right. The numbers simply could not add up.
Is there any reason to believe that Michel Barnier might survive the “Le Pen test”? Her position is difficult to read.
She originally seemed to favour a period of stability in which her party could rebuild after its third defeat in seven years. She faces an embarrassing legal trial from the end of this month in which she and her party are accused of embezzling EU cash by employing fake officials in the European Parliament.
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Le Pen seems to have decided to play hard ball. So long as Left and Centre refuse to combine, she has the casting votes on a new PM. She can refuse all candidates and build the pressure on Emmanuel Macron to clear the logjam by resigning.
But does she really want an early Presidential election? Does she want to be identified with ‘chaos’ rather than ‘order’?
Does she want to create deeper crisis and confusion when France already faces impossible choices on both its 2024 and 2025 budgets?
I expect not. I may be wrong.
She says she is ready to accept a ‘technocratic’ PM.
Michel Barnier has been removed from French party politics for so long that he might fit that description. But he is associated in Far Right minds with the EU (which they detest) and resisting Brexit (which they once loved but now carefully ignore).
I expect that we will have a new PM shortly, either M. Barnier or U.N. Autre. But the impossibility of coalition or even loose understanding between the Left and the Centre has handed the permanent power of nuisance or destruction to Marine Le Pen.
While the Left bays to bring down any new government, she can terminate the career of the new PM by joining a left-wing censure motion whenever she wants.
Do you agree with John’s views on who is to blame for the ongoing political crisis in France. Share your own views in the comments section below.

#John Lichfield
#Politics

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Mike Gibb

2024/09/05 13:23

Barnier, after his long stint in Brexit, did say that he was in favour of French law having primacy over EU law when he put his hat in the ring for Presdent for 2022
https://x.com/BMoon_bee/status/1831605888362185027
More, in French, here
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Barnier#Candidature_au_congr%C3%A8s_des_R%C3%A9publicains_de_2021

See Also

Wanted, Prime Minister. No experience necessary.
Must be acceptable to new National Assembly which cannot agree on anything. Length of employment uncertain.
A new “old” name has emerged today in France’s game of political whack-a-mole.
President Emmanuel Macron will ‘test’ whether Michel Barnier, 73, former EU commissioner and Brexit negotiator, is sufficiently respected as an elder statesman (very elder) to survive in the job for more than a few days.
Three other candidates seemed destined to move into the Hotel Matignon in the last few days.
They were Bernard Cazeneuve, the ex- Socialist PM; Xavier Bertrand, centre-right President of the northern French region, Hauts-de-France; and Thierry Baudet, centre-left president of the Economic and Social Committee, a powerless third chamber of the French parliament which is usually allowed to sleep undisturbed.
All had their 15 minutes of fame. All were finally rejected by President Emmanuel Macron when it became clear that they would be rapidly removed from office by a censure motion in the new National Assembly elected almost two months ago.
In all three cases, the final thumbs down came after Macron consulted Marine Le Pen.
Pity poor Emmanuel Macron. No one else much does, so I will. The crisis is partly of his making. But the insoluble arithmetic of the new National Assembly is of The People’s making.
There are three and a half ideological blocs. No party, group or block has anything approaching a majority.
The Centre, Right and Far Right say that they will censure the obscure PM, Lucie Castets, proposed by the Left. The Left will censure any PM from the Right or Centre, even one from the centre-left. The Far Right will de facto combine with the Left to censure all comers from the Centre, Centre-left and Centre-Right.
READ ALSO: Macron is not staging a coup, nor is he ‘stealing’ the French elections
And the French media mocks Macron for “failing to make up his mind”…
Le Monde says that Macron has ‘made Marine Le Pen the referee’ of who should be the next PM. France’s once reliable newspaper of record says that Macron believes “that the opinion of the Far Right leader counts double”.
What nonsense.
Like it or not, French voters have made Le Pen and her parliamentary troops (142 seats out of 577) the swing votes in the new assembly. Macron has no choice but to consult her – as he has consulted all other parties.
It may seem odd that Le Pen is in such a powerful position two months after the Far Right was defeated on July 7th. It is odd – and dangerous.
Le Pen originally said that her deputies would not necessarily censure any new PM. She has changed her mind, making the difficult numbers of the new assembly impossible.
Le Pen’s camp lost in July because the Left and Centre combined to vote against them. Logic might suggest that the Left and Centre, having ‘won’ the election, should agree on a compromise government.
That is Belgian or German political logic. It does not extend to France.
The Left claims it has the right to govern alone because it won a few more seats than any other bloc (but only one in three of seats overall).
Macron’s centre and the centre-right refuse to govern with a left alliance dominated by the radical, anti-European, pro-Russian and pro-Hamas La France Insoumise.
The Left alliance this week refused Macron’s suggestion that the last Socialist PM, Bernard Cazeneuve, should return at the head of a left-centre coalition. They said that would just be an extension of Macronism.
Cazeneuve, it turns out, was not so Macronist as all that. He wanted to reopen Macron’s pension reform and maybe shift the standard pension age back to 62 (from 64). That was not enough to win him the support of the four party Left alliance and not even of the Parti Socialiste, to whom he used to belong. It also cooled Macron’s interest in his former friend and colleague.
The other possibilities tested by Macron – Bertrand and Beaudet (rapidly nick-named “Mr Nobeaudet”) – failed because they were rejected by both the Left and then the Far Right. The numbers simply could not add up.
Is there any reason to believe that Michel Barnier might survive the “Le Pen test”? Her position is difficult to read.
She originally seemed to favour a period of stability in which her party could rebuild after its third defeat in seven years. She faces an embarrassing legal trial from the end of this month in which she and her party are accused of embezzling EU cash by employing fake officials in the European Parliament.
Le Pen seems to have decided to play hard ball. So long as Left and Centre refuse to combine, she has the casting votes on a new PM. She can refuse all candidates and build the pressure on Emmanuel Macron to clear the logjam by resigning.
But does she really want an early Presidential election? Does she want to be identified with ‘chaos’ rather than ‘order’?
Does she want to create deeper crisis and confusion when France already faces impossible choices on both its 2024 and 2025 budgets?
I expect not. I may be wrong.
She says she is ready to accept a ‘technocratic’ PM.
Michel Barnier has been removed from French party politics for so long that he might fit that description. But he is associated in Far Right minds with the EU (which they detest) and resisting Brexit (which they once loved but now carefully ignore).
I expect that we will have a new PM shortly, either M. Barnier or U.N. Autre. But the impossibility of coalition or even loose understanding between the Left and the Centre has handed the permanent power of nuisance or destruction to Marine Le Pen.
While the Left bays to bring down any new government, she can terminate the career of the new PM by joining a left-wing censure motion whenever she wants.
Do you agree with John’s views on who is to blame for the ongoing political crisis in France. Share your own views in the comments section below.

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